We don't even have the nominations yet. Doesn't matter. The race is on.

Typically one can read the tea leaves by following the film awards after the Golden Globes til the Oscars. After the Golden Globes, the different guilds and organizations will start trending towards favorites, creating a wave of anticipation that crashes on the shore of Kodak Theatre on Oscar Sunday. It's actually not that different from the buzz a potential first overall pick would receive from declaration, to pro scouting day,to draft day. 

Well imagine that someone became a strong favorite for the #1 overall NFL pick during the regular season but an opposing player become the favorite after a loss in the Rose Bowl. That's pretty much what happened this past weekend with The Hurt Locker's big win at the Producer Guild Awards this past weekend.

Oscar Buzz

The big story this week is going to be The Hurt Locker walking away with the Producer of the Year Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures, essentially their best picture category. Last week I wrote that Avatar's win at the Globes made it an early front-runner, and everyone expected the PGA to jump on the bandwagon. 

But they didn't. 

The Hurt Locker's win not only gives the film a boost- but shows that as of right now it is still any body's game. Just look at the major awards for best picture so far:

National Board of Review (December 3rd): Up In The Air

BFCA Critics Choice (January 15th): The Hurt Locker

Golden Globes (January 17th): Avatar

Producer's Guild Awards (January 24th): The Hurt Locker

Keep a close eye on the Directors Guild Awards this weekend to see where the trend is going next.

What I've Been Watching

Avatar

James Cameron is no doubt a genius. Every film that he's directed after Terminator has been nominated by the Academy for at least one Oscar. He has consistently pushed the envelope in technical achievements in visual effects and sound, with most of his films earning Oscar nods in those categories. However with 1997's Titanic, Cameron finally achieved the magic formula: an epic box office blockbuster that wows audiences and critics with breathtaking visuals, passable acting, and a doable story. Avatar follows this formula to a T. I saw the film last month in 3-D IMAX, which I highly recommend. You don't necessarily need to watch the film in 3-D but it helps demonstrates Avatar's breakthrough visuals and technology.

Avatar has audiences polarized: some feel that it's another breakthrough film from the master of epic; others feel that it's over-hyped, and essentially, "Dances with Smurfs." The divide lies with the idea of what defines a best picture: A major box office success with lots of glitz and glam- or a film with extraordinary acting and a memorable story? I personally side with the latter, which is why I think Avatar is a great film but shouldn't win best picture.

The Hurt Locker

A typical day on the job for three members of the Army's Explosive Ordnance Disposal unit would make for a climax scene in any action flick. It certainly takes an adrenaline junkie to spend their days disarming bombs, and the film paints an interesting portrait of Staff Sergeant William James (Jeremy Renner) as such. The film is a gritty action film that tells a war story with a bit more depth than your typical mainstream war film (this ain't no Pearl Harbor.) Here war isn't a simple good guys vs. bad guys where the battle and war is won at the end of the film. The Hurt Locker depicts war in a more realistic sense- a messy ordeal that lingers on without a clear end.

With a complex story that requires the viewer to marinade it fully for full enjoyment, the film has challenges of gaining widespread acceptance. However people often look to current events and issues when voting for Oscar, just look at last year's Oscar wins for Milk in the wake of Proposition 9. A vote for Hurt Locker would be a statement on feelings of a long drawn out war in the middle east.

Up In The Air

I don't think any film this past year describes today's generation like Up In The Air. The Jason Reitman film stars George Clooney in a role only he could of played. Clooney plays Ryan Bingham, a man who's job and life revolves around terminating relationships.As a business consultant Bingham is constantly flying around the country to fire people on behalf of his clients. His work keeps him literally up in the air for most of the year, a situation he actually relishes. His personal philosophy is summed up in the motivational speeches he gives on the side: empty your "backpack" of everything and live your life free from connections and relationships. Bingham doesn't have a girlfriend, stays relatively distant with his family, and rarely stays in his one-bedroom apartment. All of this is challenged with entrance of two women in his life: a new co-worker (Anna Kendrick) who threatens his very way of life and a fellow business traveler (Vera Farmiga) who appears to be the female version of Bingham, down to the collection of travel loyalty cards.

The idea of isolation through work or technology is quickly defining today's generation. What makes this film great besides interesting characters and great acting is the evergreen value the film has for years to come. I can easily see this film being the definitive look into the way we lived our lives 50 years from now. As much as I love this film and want it to win big- the film struggled during to breakthrough during it's release and may be the best film no-one has yet watched.

The Rest of the Bunch

Inglourious Basterds - A classic Tarintino film through and though, it deserves to win best screenplay for the tale of revenge set in the middle of World War II. The cast walked away from the SAG Awards with best ensemble, an award usually used to help predict best picture but this year it's more of a testament to how average the acting in Avatar was. Christoph Waltz is still riding the wave towards Best Supporting Actor with a SAG nod following his Golden Globe win. Would love to see Tarintino win for Best Director but Cameron his ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow are higher up in the mix for now.

Star Trek - Summer blockbusters aren't usually recognized during Oscar season, but with the expansion of Best Picture means somebody needs to fill in the vacuum and Star Trek has been written as a possible sleeper for one of those last slots. It was a great reboot to the series and did a great job recapturing the wide-spread appeal that some of the early films had- but if this film gets nominated for Best Picture I wouldn't be too happy. Star Trek was a great action film but I believe Best Picture needs to be more than just explosions and aliens (see what I think about Avatar above.)

500 Days Of Summer - It was a love story that's not really a love story, a creative way to approach the romantic comedy flick. I love Zooey Deschanel and watching her is always a delight. Right now it is a contender for Best Original Screenplay and should get a well-deserved nomination.

Me and Orson Welles - When I originally screened this film back in December, I wrote about Christian McKay's wonderful performance as Orson Welles. While he would be a long shot to get a nomination for supporting actor, I want to make note that the film is definitely worth watching to watch McKay as Welles.